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NYM 3 / MIL 8
NYMNew York Mets36%
MILMilwaukee Brewers64%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline64%Model 20260720_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
NYM36%ML +180
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
MIL64%ML -220

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts

Misiorowski's 1.62 ERA and 13.54 K/9 across 111 IP is elite. Model at 64.3% matches Pinnacle's 65.4% implied—no comparison. Peralta's 4.66 ERA and weak NYM offense (.736 OPS) support MIL, but pitcher park and low total line (7.5) suggest tight game. Lean home, lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.6
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Freddy PeraltaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 draftkings / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K9.3Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +115 bovada / U -134 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 8.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.598%over
O 4.594%over
O 5.589%over
O 6.580%under
O 7.570%under
O 8.558%under
O 9.545%under
O 10.534%under
O 11.524%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+180 / -220NYM / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total