MLB / mlb / live
CIN 7 / MIL 2CINCincinnati Reds42%
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
CIN42%ML +170
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
MIL58%ML -205
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 betrivers / U -135 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 7.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%under
O 5.563%under
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K10.2Actual 10 K / Over 9.5
Best price at 9.59.5O +114 betrivers / U -121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 9.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.5100%over
O 3.599%over
O 4.597%over
O 5.593%over
O 6.586%over
O 7.578%over
O 8.567%over
O 9.556%over
O 10.544%under
O 11.534%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+170 / -205CIN / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -105 / U -119
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total