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CHC 2 / MIL 6
CHCChicago Cubs27%
MILMilwaukee Brewers73%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterColin ReaConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline73%Model 20260622_auto
MILHome starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
CHC27%ML +202
Base model probability73%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability68%Selected moneyline pick
MIL73%ML -250

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.6 pts

Model at 72.9% vs market 70.7% — minor comparison to MIL. Misiorowski's 1.45 ERA across 93 IP with 13.35 K/9 is elite, not small-sample noise. Rea's 4.99 ERA in similar workload is a real gap. Park factor 0.95 and ace vs league-average starter argue under the 7.0 market total. Model total 7.26 is slightly high given pitcher mismatch.

Projection Context

Projected margin2.1
Projected total8.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Colin ReaCHC starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 bovada / U -154 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / home
Projected K8.8Actual 8 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -118 betmgm / U +116 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 8.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.597%over
O 4.592%over
O 5.585%over
O 6.575%over
O 7.563%over
O 8.550%under
O 9.538%under
O 10.528%under
O 11.519%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+202 / -250CHC / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total