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CLE 1 / MIL 2
CLECleveland Guardians51%
MILMilwaukee Brewers49%

at American Family Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
MILHome starterRobert GasserConfirmed
CLE51%ML +130
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
MIL49%ML -154

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.3 pts

Model has CLE 51% but market heavily favors MIL at 58.5%. Milwaukee's 7.8 RPG and .972 OPS vs Cleveland's 3.1 RPG offense is stark. Gasser's 6.38 ERA in 18.3 IP and Cecconi's 4.83 ERA both suggest runs. Model total 9.04 vs market 8.5 aligns over.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Slade CecconiCLE starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +109 draftkings / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Robert GasserMIL starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 fanduel / U -155 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 5.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+130 / -154CLE / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total