MLB / mlb / live
CLE 1 / MIL 2CLECleveland Guardians51%
MILMilwaukee Brewers49%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
MILHome starterRobert GasserConfirmed
CLE51%ML +130
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
MIL49%ML -154
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.6 pts
Model has CLE 51% but market heavily favors MIL at 58.5%. Milwaukee's 7.8 RPG and .972 OPS vs Cleveland's 3.1 RPG offense is stark. Gasser's 6.38 ERA in 18.3 IP and Cecconi's 4.83 ERA both suggest runs. Model total 9.04 vs market 8.5 aligns over.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Slade CecconiCLE starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +109 draftkings / U -130 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Robert GasserMIL starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 fanduel / U -155 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 5.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -154CLE / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total