MLB / mlb / live
PHI 9 / MIL 8PHIPhiladelphia Phillies46%
MILMilwaukee Brewers54%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron Nola
Model pickMIL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterShane Drohan
PHI46%ML +138
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability60%Selected moneyline pick
MIL54%ML -164
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 draftkings / U +125 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Shane DrohanMIL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 fanatics / U +134 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+138 / -164PHI / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -116 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total