MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / MIL 16SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
MILMilwaukee Brewers44%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden Roupp
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterShane Drohan
SFG56%ML +138
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability40%Selected moneyline pick
MIL44%ML -163
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap15.3 pts
Model has SFG favored but market strongly disagrees (implied 60.5% MIL vs model's 44%). Drohan in MLB debut (1 GS, no cumulative stats) creates huge uncertainty. SFG's 6.2 RPG on .388 OPS is arithmetically impossible—data quality issue. Model's 9.21 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.71-run gap in a pitcher park. Lean MIL with market, under on total given park factor and data noise.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+138 / -163SFG / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total