MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / MIL 16SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
MILMilwaukee Brewers44%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden Roupp
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterShane Drohan
SFG56%ML +138
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIL44%ML -163
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.1 pts
Model has SFG favored but market strongly disagrees (implied 60.5% MIL vs model's 44%). Drohan in MLB debut (1 GS, no cumulative stats) creates huge uncertainty. SFG's 6.2 RPG on .388 OPS is arithmetically impossible—data quality issue. Model's 9.21 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.71-run gap in a pitcher park. Lean MIL with market, under on total given park factor and data noise.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+138 / -163SFG / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total