MLB / mlb / live
SFG 3 / MIL 8SFGSan Francisco Giants55%
MILMilwaukee Brewers45%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTrevor McDonald
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterKyle Harrison
SFG55%ML +218
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIL45%ML -270
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time20.4 pts
Model gives SFG 55% despite 23-37 record vs MIL 36-21; market strongly disagrees at 65% MIL. Missing pitcher stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9 all null) make total unreadable. Records suggest MIL, but lack of pitcher data prevents strong conviction. Deferring mostly to market here.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+218 / -270SFG / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total