MLB / mlb / live
SFG 3 / MIL 8SFGSan Francisco Giants55%
MILMilwaukee Brewers45%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTrevor McDonald
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterKyle Harrison
SFG55%ML +218
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability30%Selected moneyline pick
MIL45%ML -270
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap25.1 pts
Model gives SFG 55% despite 23-37 record vs MIL 36-21; market strongly disagrees at 65% MIL. Missing pitcher stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9 all null) make total unreadable. Records suggest MIL, but lack of pitcher data prevents strong conviction. Deferring mostly to market here.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+218 / -270SFG / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total