MLB / mlb / live
LAD 5 / MIL 1LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
MILMilwaukee Brewers45%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterBrandon Sproat
LAD55%ML -150
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
MIL45%ML +128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.5 pts
Model leans LAD 55.2%, market stronger at 61.1% implied. Sproat's 21.0 ERA across 3.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, not signal. LAD offense at 6.1 RPG vs MIL 4.4 RPG supports road favorite. Model total 9.14 runs vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, driven by Sproat's tiny sample instability.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-150 / +128LAD / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total