MLB / mlb / live
LAD 1 / MIL 5LADLos Angeles Dodgers40%
MILMilwaukee Brewers60%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterJustin Wrobleski
Model pickMIL moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterLogan Henderson
LAD40%ML -108
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
MIL60%ML -111
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.9 pts
Model has MIL 60% vs market coin flip. Large disagreement flag + offense_defense_mismatch both fire. LAD superior offense (5.4 RPG, .743 OPS vs 4.6/.972) yet model fades them. Missing pitcher stats make SP comparison unverifiable. Total 8.99 vs market 8.5 in pitcher park suggests over lean.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-108 / -111LAD / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-185)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -118
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total