MLB / mlb / live
SDP 1 / MIL 7SDPSan Diego Padres57%
MILMilwaukee Brewers43%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterGriffin Canning
Model pickSDP moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterKyle Harrison
SDP57%ML +128
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
MIL43%ML -152
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.3 pts
Model favors SDP 57.4% vs market 42.1% (8pp gap triggers disagreement flag). Missing pitcher stats is concerning but SHAP shows away pitcher metrics driving the call. MIL offense (.972 OPS) much stronger than SDP (.547), yet model picks road team. Total 9.13 vs market 8.0 suggests over lean, park factor neutral.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -152SDP / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total