MLB / mlb / live
SDP 3 / MIL 1SDPSan Diego Padres42%
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael King
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterJacob Misiorowski
SDP42%ML +125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIL58%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts
Model total 8.93 vs market 7.0 is a 1.93-run gap. Both SP have microscopic ERAs in 5.0 IP—obvious small samples. Ace matchup flag fires correctly. Market total at 7.0 reflects pitcher quality better than model's 8.93. Side: MIL slight comparison, no conviction.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -150SDP / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total