MLB / mlb / live
SDP 3 / MIL 1SDPSan Diego Padres42%
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael King
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterJacob Misiorowski
SDP42%ML +125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
MIL58%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.1 pts
Model total 8.93 vs market 7.0 is a 1.93-run gap. Both SP have microscopic ERAs in 5.0 IP—obvious small samples. Ace matchup flag fires correctly. Market total at 7.0 reflects pitcher quality better than model's 8.93. Side: MIL slight comparison, no conviction.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150SDP / MIL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total