MLB / mlb / live
NYY 3 / MIL 4NYYNew York Yankees55%
MILMilwaukee Brewers45%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCam Schlittler
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterKyle Harrison
NYY55%ML -143
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
MIL45%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.2 pts
Model projects 9.24 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.74 run gap triggers total_far_from_market. Both pitchers lack season IP/ERA/K9 data despite 10 starts each, making this structural noise not signal. Model moneyline (NYY 55.2%) vs market (NYY 57.1%) is close but total disconnect suggests missing context. Pass until pitcher stats resolve.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-143 / +120NYY / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-141)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total