MLB / mlb / live
NYY 3 / MIL 4NYYNew York Yankees56%
MILMilwaukee Brewers44%
at American Family Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCarlos Rodón
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MILHome starterLogan Henderson
NYY56%ML -122
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIL44%ML +104
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts
Model favors NYY at 55.7% vs market 52.8%, but margin is essentially a coin flip at -0.84 runs. Both pitchers lack traditional stats (IP/ERA/K9 all null) despite multiple starts, creating structural uncertainty. Model total 9.18 vs market 8.0 is a meaningful 1.18-run gap; MIL's high OPS (.972 vs NYY .692) suggests offense, supporting over lean.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-122 / +104NYY / MIL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total