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ATL 8 / MIA 3
ATLAtlanta Braves46%
MIAMiami Marlins54%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterBrent SuterConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
MIAHome starterJack RalstonConfirmed
ATL46%ML -118
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIA54%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.0 pts

Model has MIA at 54.5% against a market that implies 48.5%, and the case rests on Ralston, who has just 16.0 IP and a 4.50 ERA — too thin to trust. Suter's 88.0 IP at 3.48 ERA is the steadier profile, and ATL's 93-67 record plus .789 OPS comparison supports the market side. Combined 7.9 RPG under an 8.5 line leans under, though late-September lineups add noise.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Brent SuterATL starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.560%over
O 2.534%over
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Jack RalstonMIA starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%under
O 3.543%under
O 4.525%under
O 5.513%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-118 / +100ATL / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total