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ATL 3 / MIA 5
ATLAtlanta Braves55%
MIAMiami Marlins45%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterJR RitchieConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
MIAHome starterJanson JunkConfirmed
ATL55%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIA45%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.9 pts

Model gives ATL 54.8% while the market prices MIA at -118 (53.1% home), a ~8-point gap the model justifies mostly on season win pct — a weak input in game 161 when a 94-67 Atlanta club is set and Miami is home. Both starters are ordinary (4.31 and 4.79 ERA, 1.31/1.46 WHIP), so I side with the market lightly. Combined RPG of 3.7 and 4.3 sits right at the 8.0 line; no total view.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
JR RitchieATL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -123 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +102 fanduel / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%over
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -124ATL / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total