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ATL 0 / MIA 3
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
MIAMiami Marlins53%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterRay KerrConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
MIAHome starterEury PérezConfirmed
ATL47%ML -117
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIA53%ML -103

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

Model has MIA at 52.6% despite ATL's 93-66 record and better OPS (.789 vs .774); that comparison looks thin. Atlanta's starter is TBD with fallback stats (3.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), so both side and total are on shaky footing, and there's no market anchor. Slight lean to the better club, no action. Total passed with no line available.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ray KerrATL starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.569%under
O 3.549%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -134 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-117 / -103ATL / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total