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BOS 0 / MIA 4
BOSBoston Red Sox53%
MIAMiami Marlins47%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline53%Model 20260824_auto
MIAHome starterRyan GustoConfirmed
BOS53%ML -132
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIA47%ML +112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Market (-130, ~55%) and model (53.5%) agree on Boston, and the starter gap supports it: Gray at 2.79 ERA / 1.16 WHIP over 138.7 IP versus Gusto at 4.37 / 1.34 in 57.7 IP. The model's 9.16-run total sits 1.66 above the 7.5 line in a neutral park (PF 1.01) with the better arm on the mound; that gap looks like a structural miss, so I lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betonlineag / U +101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betmgm / U +113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +112BOS / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total