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BOS 7 / MIA 3
BOSBoston Red Sox59%
MIAMiami Marlins41%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPayton TolleConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
MIAHome starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
BOS59%ML -150
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
MIA41%ML +130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.3 pts

Model's 58.9% on BOS sits close to the market's ~62% implied, so no real disagreement; Tolle (3.08 ERA, 10.05 K/9, 1.08 WHIP) is the only pitcher with resolved stats and Boston's 5.5 RPG backs the side. The 9.24 model total against a 7.5 line looks structural: home starter is a fallback and both listed ERAs are under 3.50 at a neutral park (PF 1.01). Slight under lean, small size given the TBD.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 bovada / U -129 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -132 fanduel / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-150 / +130BOS / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -104
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total