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WSN 2 / MIA 6
WSNWashington Nationals48%
MIAMiami Marlins52%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterJackson KentConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline52%Model 20260817_auto
MIAHome starterJanson JunkConfirmed
WSN48%ML +138
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
MIA52%ML -158

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts

Market at 59.5% on Miami versus the model's 51.6% — the market is likely right here, with Washington starting Jackson Kent (2 GS, 7.7 IP, 9.39 ERA, 2.48 WHIP) against Junk's steadier 92.7 IP at 4.37. Kent's sample is too thin to price aggressively, but it argues for the home side. Model's 9.33 total sits 1.3 above the 8.0 line, and WSN's 3.1 RPG caps one side, so no total view.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jackson KentWSN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -152 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.532%over
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.565%under
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -158WSN / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total