sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

BOS 4 / MIA 2
BOSBoston Red Sox51%
MIAMiami Marlins49%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterRanger SuarezConfirmed
Model pickBOS moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
MIAHome starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
BOS51%ML -124
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
MIA49%ML +106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.8 pts

Both starters sit under 3.50 ERA with identical 1.18 WHIPs, so the model's 8.83-run total looks high against a 7.5 market line in a neutral park (PF 1.01). Boston's 71-59 record and market price (-130, 55.4% implied) beat the model's near coin-flip 50.6%; I side with the market but without conviction given MIA's .774 OPS versus its 3.9 RPG.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ranger SuarezBOS starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +110 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-124 / +106BOS / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -119 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total