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PIT 13 / MIA 1
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
MIAMiami Marlins53%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
MIAHome starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
PIT47%ML -126
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIA53%ML +106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts

Market makes PIT a small favorite despite a 58-64 record and 2.8 RPG on a .710 OPS; MIA at 4.6 RPG and .774 OPS at home is the better offense and I side with the model at ~53%. Phillips' 1.36 WHIP and 6.75 K/9 argue against a strong price, but Ashcraft (9.86 K/9, 1.16 WHIP) plus Pittsburgh's punchless lineup makes the model's 8.83 total look high versus the 8.0 line in a neutral park.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U +110 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanatics / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-126 / +106PIT / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total