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WSN 2 / MIA 4
WSNWashington Nationals50%
MIAMiami Marlins50%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterJake IrvinConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline50%Model 20260817_auto
MIAHome starterEury PérezConfirmed
WSN50%ML +160
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
MIA50%ML -189

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.8 pts

Model has WSN at 50.5% against a market implying 62.3% home, a large gap I can't justify. Perez (3.23 ERA, 9.76 K/9, 1.11 WHIP) is clearly ahead of Irvin (5.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), and the model is picking the team with the worse record. Both offenses sit under 4.0 RPG in a neutral park, so 8.69 looks high versus a 7.5 line.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 draftkings / U +102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+160 / -189WSN / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+117)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total