MLB / mlb / live
PIT 0 / MIA 2PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
MIAMiami Marlins53%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
MIAHome starterEury PérezConfirmed
PIT47%ML -110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
MIA53%ML -106
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -140 fanduel / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.570%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 bovada / U -115 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -106PIT / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-181)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -112 / U -108
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total