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LAA 4 / MIA 3
LAALos Angeles Angels37%
MIAMiami Marlins63%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterGeorge KlassenConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline63%Model 20260803_auto
MIAHome starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
LAA37%ML +128
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
MIA63%ML -150

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.9 pts

Model (62.7%) and market (60.8%) essentially agree on Miami, so no comparison dispute. Phillips at 3.53 ERA over 89.1 IP is a stable profile against Klassen's 4.2 IP with a 3.64 WHIP, and that sample is too small to trust either way beyond expecting a short outing. Neutral park (1.01) and an early bullpen call for LAA nudge the 8.5 slightly over.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
George KlassenLAA starter / away
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +106 fanduel / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.520%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.580%over
O 2.558%over
O 3.536%under
O 4.520%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -156 betonlineag / U +125 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+128 / -150LAA / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total