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PHI 6 / MIA 8
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
MIAMiami Marlins42%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260727_auto
MIAHome starterRyan GustoConfirmed
PHI58%ML -175
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIA42%ML +145

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts

Model (58.3%) and market (61.2% implied) both favor PHI. Luzardo's 3.31 ERA over 122 IP is legitimate, Gusto's 4.50 in 34 IP is small-sample noisy. Model total of 8.46 exceeds market 7.5 by 1.0 runs; PHI's 4.2 RPG offense vs MIA's weak pitching depth supports over lean. Neutral park, no structural flags.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total10.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +126 fanduel / U -119 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%under
O 6.549%under
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +108 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-175 / +145PHI / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total