MLB / mlb / live
scheduledPHIPhiladelphia Phillies50%
MIAMiami Marlins50%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron NolaProbable
Model pickMIA moneyline50%Model 20260727_auto
MIAHome starterSandy AlcantaraProbable
PHI50%ML -106
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
MIA50%ML -113
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.3
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.589%
O 3.576%
O 4.560%
O 5.543%
O 6.528%
O 7.517%
O 8.510%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K5.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.591%
O 3.580%
O 4.565%
O 5.549%
O 6.534%
O 7.521%
O 8.513%
O 9.57%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-106 / -113PHI / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total