MLB / mlb / live
SDP 4 / MIA 2SDPSan Diego Padres45%
MIAMiami Marlins55%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterGermán MárquezConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
MIAHome starterRyan GustoConfirmed
SDP45%ML +102
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIA55%ML -122
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Germán MárquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +125 fanatics / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Ryan GustoMIA starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -142 draftkings / U +120 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 2.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+102 / -122SDP / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -114 / U -107
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total