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scheduled
CLECleveland Guardians40%
MIAMiami Marlins60%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterTanner BibeeProbable
Model pickMIA moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
MIAHome starterEury PérezProbable
CLE40%ML +128
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
MIA60%ML -152

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.9 pts

Model has MIA 59.8%, market 57.4% — modest agreement favoring home. MIA offense (6.7 RPG, .774 OPS) vs CLE (4.2 RPG, .600 OPS) is a real comparison. Model total 8.96 vs market 7.5 is a 1.46-run gap; MIA's bat strength and neutral park suggest over has merit, but no ace matchup to suppress scoring.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K5.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.578%
O 4.562%
O 5.546%
O 6.531%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+128 / -152CLE / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total