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CLE 3 / MIA 2
CLECleveland Guardians47%
MIAMiami Marlins53%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterParker MessickConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
MIAHome starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
CLE47%ML +105
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
MIA53%ML -125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.6 pts

Model has MIA 52.7%, market 52.6%—dead heat. Total divergence is the story: model 9.08 vs market 7.0. MIA offense is real (7.5 RPG, .774 OPS) but Messick's 2.8 ERA in 106 IP is legit. Alcantara's 4.0 ERA in 123 IP is merely average. Lean under 7.0 on Messick's form.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K4.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.570%
O 4.552%
O 5.535%
O 6.522%
O 7.512%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K5.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.539%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+105 / -125CLE / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total