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SEA 4 / MIA 8
SEASeattle Mariners52%
MIAMiami Marlins48%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryce MillerConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline52%Model 20260706_auto
MIAHome starterJanson JunkConfirmed
SEA52%ML -128
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
MIA48%ML +110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.2 pts

Model at 51.9% SEA, market at 58.7% SEA (via -142). Miller's 1.71 ERA and 10.59 K/9 across 52.7 IP is legitimate dominance. MIA's 6.8 RPG offense meets a pitcher suppressing runs at elite level. Junk's 4.8 ERA and 6.45 K/9 face SEA's .793 OPS; total at 9.42 vs market 8.0 reflects SEA's quiet offense (4.3 RPG) but hard contact metrics push over.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryce MillerSEA starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 fanduel / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Janson JunkMIA starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 fanduel / U +106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-128 / +110SEA / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total