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SEA 0 / MIA 2
SEASeattle Mariners50%
MIAMiami Marlins50%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterGeorge KirbyConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
MIAHome starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
SEA50%ML -128
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
MIA50%ML +110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.2 pts

Model calls this a coinflip (50.05% MIA) but market leans SEA at 54.3% implied. Kirby's 104 IP sample is more reliable than Phillips' 69 IP. MIA's 7.1 RPG looks inflated—SEA allows 4.6 but posts higher OPS (.793 vs .774). Model total of 8.89 sits just above market 8.5; neutral park argues slight under lean.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
George KirbySEA starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betmgm / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betonlineag / U -148 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-128 / +110SEA / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -119 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total