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TEX 4 / MIA 6
TEXTexas Rangers53%
MIAMiami Marlins47%

at loanDepot park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterCal QuantrillConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
MIAHome starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
TEX53%ML +135
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
MIA47%ML -160

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap12.5 pts

Model has TEX 53.4%, market has MIA 59.1% — a 5.7pp gap triggering the large disagreement flag. MIA's 2.8 RPG on .774 OPS vs TEX's anemic 1.7 RPG on .698 OPS makes the model's road favorite pick suspect. Alcantara's 103 IP sample is credible; Quantrill's 29 IP is thin. Lean MIA but the park is neutral and neither side screams value.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K2.7Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%under
O 2.550%under
O 3.528%under
O 4.514%under
O 5.56%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -146 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+135 / -160TEX / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total