MLB / mlb / live
SFG 3 / MIA 4SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
MIAMiami Marlins55%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden RouppConfirmed
Model pickMIA moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
MIAHome starterLake BacharConfirmed
SFG45%ML -105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
MIA55%ML -114
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Lake BacharMIA starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%under
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-105 / -114SFG / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.3 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total