MLB / mlb / live
ARI 0 / MIA 2ARIArizona Diamondbacks52%
MIAMiami Marlins48%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill Kelly
Model pickARI moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterTyler Phillips
ARI52%ML +107
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
MIA48%ML -128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.9 pts
Model and market agree on a coin flip (model 52.2% ARI, market 47.7% ARI). Phillips' 2.08 ERA in 43.3 IP is unsustainable; Kelly's 5.71 ERA in 58.3 IP is real. Arizona's 2.7 RPG offense (.564 OPS) is struggling badly. Model total 9.08 vs market 8.5 is close; lean over given Miami's offense advantage (4.6 RPG, .774 OPS) should exploit Kelly.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+107 / -128ARI / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total