MLB / mlb / live
ARI 0 / MIA 8ARIArizona Diamondbacks56%
MIAMiami Marlins44%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterRyne Nelson
Model pickARI moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterRyan Gusto
ARI56%ML -116
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
MIA44%ML -102
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts
Model has ARI 55.7%, market has ARI 52.2% — modest comparison. Gusto's 10.8 ERA in 5.0 IP is a disaster, but tiny sample (half a start's worth). Nelson's 4.6 ERA in 72.1 IP is reliable. Model total 9.11 vs market 8.0 argues over; Gusto's struggles support it. ARI offense at 2.8 RPG/0.564 OPS is concerning for side confidence.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-116 / -102ARI / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total