MLB / mlb / live
TBR 6 / MIA 0TBRTampa Bay Rays46%
MIAMiami Marlins54%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterRyan Gusto
TBR46%ML -132
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIA54%ML +110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts
Model favors MIA 53.6% vs market 45.2%, an 8.4pp gap. TBR is 36-23 with superior .802 OPS; MIA is 29-34. Rasmussen's 1.80 ERA in 5.0 IP is tiny sample but real. Model's total 9.32 vs market 8.0 is a 1.3-run miss. Lean TBR, over on total.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-132 / +110TBR / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total