MLB / mlb / live
NYM 0 / MIA 4NYMNew York Mets46%
MIAMiami Marlins54%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterChristian Scott
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterTyler Phillips
NYM46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
MIA54%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap0.7 pts
Phillips has 2.0 season IP across 8 starts—this is a data quality issue masking as 'full'. Scott's stats are entirely null. Model is picking the worse team (24-29 vs 22-30, lower OPS, fewer runs) without credible pitcher data. Market has NYM favored at -112. No structural comparison visible; passing entirely.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130NYM / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total