MLB / mlb / live
NYM 1 / MIA 4NYMNew York Mets42%
MIAMiami Marlins58%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterFreddy Peralta
Model pickMIA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterMax Meyer
NYM42%ML -103
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
MIA58%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.2 pts
Model predicts 9.09 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.6-run gap flags structural miss. Both pitchers have tiny 5.0 IP samples (10 starts each, ~0.5 IP/start is clearly incomplete data). Meyer 5.40 ERA and Peralta 7.20 ERA suggest neither is sharp, but sample noise dominates. Market total is more reliable; lean under given pitcher ERAs once volume normalizes.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-103 / -115NYM / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U -102
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total