MLB / mlb / live
NYM 1 / MIA 4NYMNew York Mets42%
MIAMiami Marlins58%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterFreddy Peralta
Model pickMIA moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterMax Meyer
NYM42%ML -103
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
MIA58%ML -115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.9 pts
Model predicts 9.09 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.6-run gap flags structural miss. Both pitchers have tiny 5.0 IP samples (10 starts each, ~0.5 IP/start is clearly incomplete data). Meyer 5.40 ERA and Peralta 7.20 ERA suggest neither is sharp, but sample noise dominates. Market total is more reliable; lean under given pitcher ERAs once volume normalizes.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-103 / -115NYM / MIA moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -120 / U -102
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total