MLB / mlb / live
ATL 9 / MIA 1ATLAtlanta Braves59%
MIAMiami Marlins41%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterChris Sale
Model pickATL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterJanson Junk
ATL59%ML -188
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
MIA41%ML +157
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.0 pts
Market implies ATL 64.9%, model has 58.6%. Sale's 0.00 ERA in 60 IP is elite (likely TJ recovery). Model projects 9.17 runs vs market 7.5—too high given Sale and loanDepot neutrality. Lean ATL and under.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.9
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-188 / +157ATL / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-109)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total