MLB / mlb / live
PHI 6 / MIA 5PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
MIAMiami Marlins45%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack Wheeler
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterEury Pérez
PHI55%ML -120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
MIA45%ML +102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.8 pts
Wheeler fallback data (6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA) is unreliable for handicapping. Pérez at 7.0 IP/10 GS is also too small a sample to trust. Model sees PHI as 55% favorite, market has it 51%, but without usable pitcher context I can't validate either view. Pass.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +102PHI / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total