MLB / mlb / live
PHI 6 / MIA 5PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
MIAMiami Marlins45%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack Wheeler
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterEury Pérez
PHI55%ML -120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
MIA45%ML +102
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.8 pts
Wheeler fallback data (6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA) is unreliable for handicapping. Pérez at 7.0 IP/10 GS is also too small a sample to trust. Model sees PHI as 55% favorite, market has it 51%, but without usable pitcher context I can't validate either view. Pass.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +102PHI / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total