MLB / mlb / live
MIL 3 / MIA 5MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
MIAMiami Marlins54%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterJacob Misiorowski
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterEury Pérez
MIL46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
MIA54%ML +102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.0 pts
Model has MIA 53.5% vs market 47.4%, disagrees by 6pp on a coin flip. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 5 IP is tiny sample noise but he's clearly dominant today. Model total 9.09 vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run gap—structural miss. Pérez 7 IP sample equally unreliable. Defer to market on both moneyline and total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-120 / +102MIL / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -108
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total