MLB / mlb / live
MIL 3 / MIA 5MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
MIAMiami Marlins54%
at loanDepot park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterJacob Misiorowski
Model pickMIA moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
MIAHome starterEury Pérez
MIL46%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
MIA54%ML +102
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.2 pts
Model has MIA 53.5% vs market 47.4%, disagrees by 6pp on a coin flip. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/9 in 5 IP is tiny sample noise but he's clearly dominant today. Model total 9.09 vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run gap—structural miss. Pérez 7 IP sample equally unreliable. Defer to market on both moneyline and total.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +102MIL / MIA moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -114 / U -108
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total