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SFG 2 / LAD 8
SFGSan Francisco Giants29%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers71%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterCesar PerdomoConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline71%Model 20260914_auto
LADHome starterTyler GlasnowConfirmed
SFG29%ML +259
Base model probability71%Moneyline only
LAD71%ML -322

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts

Model (70.6%) and market (72.7%) essentially agree on LAD, so no comparison to exploit but the side is sound: Glasnow's 0.97 WHIP and 11.24 K/9 against a Perdomo with only 2 starts and a 1.36 WHIP. Perdomo's 3.68 ERA in 14.7 IP is too thin to trust either way. Slight under lean versus the 8.0 line given Glasnow's contact suppression; model's 8.72 looks high.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.9
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cesar PerdomoSFG starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -145 betmgm / U +122 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 2.568%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%under
O 2.568%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Tyler GlasnowLAD starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 draftkings / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%over
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+259 / -322SFG / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-137)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total