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STL 8 / LAD 6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals37%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers63%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterBrycen MautzConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline63%Model 20260831_auto
LADHome starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
STL37%ML +240
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
LAD63%ML -300

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.2 pts

Yamamoto (2.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 8.7 K/9) anchors the LAD side and the market at 68.7% is actually more bullish than the model's 62.5%. STL's opposing arm is TBD/fallback (3.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP proxy), so the model's 9.02-run total is built on substituted inputs; with LAD scoring just 3.8 RPG, I lean under the 8.0.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brycen MautzSTL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.1Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%under
O 2.559%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 betmgm / U +111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.540%over
O 7.527%over
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+240 / -300STL / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total