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PIT 0 / LAD 4
PITPittsburgh Pirates30%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers70%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterLake BacharConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline70%Model 20260817_auto
LADHome starterBlake SnellConfirmed
PIT30%ML +238
Base model probability70%Moneyline only
LAD70%ML -286

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Model (69.6%) and market (71.6%) converge on LAD, so no real comparison either way; take the side without conviction. Snell's 12.0 K/9 is strong but 15.0 IP across 10 starts implies very short outings and heavy bullpen exposure. That cuts against the under despite Bachar's 1.11 WHIP, so no total view at 8.0.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.9
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Lake BacharPIT starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +145 draftkings / U -182 betonlineag2 books at this line
Model over 2.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%under
O 2.556%under
O 3.534%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.58%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Blake SnellLAD starter / home
Projected K8.3Actual 6 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +110 betonlineag / U -125 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 8.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.596%over
O 4.590%over
O 5.581%over
O 6.570%under
O 7.557%under
O 8.544%under
O 9.532%under
O 10.522%under
O 11.515%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+238 / -286PIT / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total