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BOS 8 / LAD 4
BOSBoston Red Sox42%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterJake BennettConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260727_auto
LADHome starterEmmet SheehanConfirmed
BOS42%ML +154
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
LAD58%ML -181

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.3 pts

Market has LAD at 62.7%, model at 58.4% — a 4.3pp gap favoring Boston relative to the model. Bennett's 2.74 ERA in 65.7 IP is legitimate, Sheehan's 4.95 ERA suggests vulnerability. Model's moneyline SHAP leans heavily on BOS offense metrics (launch speed) which aligns with their .736 OPS. Total: market 8.5, model 8.87 is tight; lean under given Bennett's form.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -122 betrivers / U +103 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Emmet SheehanLAD starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 bovada / U +106 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+154 / -181BOS / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -104 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total