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BOS 3 / LAD 2
BOSBoston Red Sox45%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterPayton TolleConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
LADHome starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
BOS45%ML +155
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAD55%ML -185

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.8 pts

Model has LAD 54.8%, market implies 59.5% — meaningful gap favoring Dodgers more than model does. Yamamoto (2.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) vs Tolle (3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) is ace-quality on one side only; ace_matchup flag is marginal here. Model total 8.63 vs market 7.5 is a 1.13-run gap; LAD offense (4.9 RPG, .743 OPS) supports over but absent park factor data I can't validate the model's confidence.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -105 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%under
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -185BOS / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+118)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total