MLB / mlb / live
SEA 7 / LAD 6SEASeattle Mariners45%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers55%
at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
LADHome starterJustin WrobleskiConfirmed
SEA45%ML +195
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
LAD55%ML -235
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Luis CastilloSEA starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 2 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%under
O 3.539%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -123 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+195 / -235SEA / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total