sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 5 / LAD 3
ARIArizona Diamondbacks34%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers66%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMitch BrattConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline66%Model 20260706_auto
LADHome starterEmmet SheehanConfirmed
ARI34%ML +190
Base model probability66%Moneyline only
LAD66%ML -230

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.6 pts

Bratt has 3.0 IP season total - one start is not a sample. Model's 8.79 vs market 9.5 is a 0.71 run gap, not flagged but meaningful. LAD offense at 4.2 RPG with .743 OPS should handle small samples, but I can't evaluate ARI starter reliability. Total model lean aligns under; side is a pass without knowing who Bratt really is.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mitch BrattARI starter / away
Projected K2.6Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +118 fanduel / U -137 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.572%under
O 2.547%under
O 3.526%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Emmet SheehanLAD starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 bovada / U -150 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+190 / -230ARI / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-113)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -116
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total