sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
ARIArizona Diamondbacks39%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers61%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtProbable
Model pickLAD moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
LADHome starterYoshinobu YamamotoProbable
ARI39%ML +225
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability71%Selected moneyline pick
LAD61%ML -278

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.8 pts

Market has LAD at 71% vs model's 61%, a 10-point gap. Yamamoto's 2.49 ERA in 104 IP is elite; Pfaadt's 4.84 in 48 IP is exploitable. Market likely pricing Dodgers' 61-34 record and home comparison correctly. Lean ARI only as fade of model overconfidence.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.7
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K5.7
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.591%
O 3.581%
O 4.566%
O 5.550%
O 6.535%
O 7.522%
O 8.513%
O 9.57%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+225 / -278ARI / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -2 / U -120
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total