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ARI 9 / LAD 2
ARIArizona Diamondbacks39%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers61%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
LADHome starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
ARI39%ML +240
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
LAD61%ML -300

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.7 pts

Market has LAD at 71% vs model's 61%, a 10-point gap. Yamamoto's 2.49 ERA in 104 IP is elite; Pfaadt's 4.84 in 48 IP is exploitable. Market likely pricing Dodgers' 61-34 record and home comparison correctly. Lean ARI only as fade of model overconfidence.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -115 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -145 fanatics / U +116 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+240 / -300ARI / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -109
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total