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SDP 5 / LAD 2
SDPSan Diego Padres42%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%

at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterJP SearsConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
LADHome starterEmmet SheehanConfirmed
SDP42%ML +185
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
LAD58%ML -227

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.8 pts

Market heavily favors LAD (66.5% implied) vs model's 57.6%. Model sees comparison in Sears' long-run stats but 10.3 IP is tiny sample. Sheehan's 5.08 ERA in 72.7 IP is legitimate. Market knows more here. Total 9.5 looks high given SDP's 4.6 RPG.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
JP SearsSDP starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betmgm / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Emmet SheehanLAD starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U +103 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+185 / -227SDP / LAD moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -114 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total